Kamala Harris’s chances of winning the election are increasing in the last days

Vice President Kamala Harris has seen her chances of winning Tuesday’s election rise dramatically in the final days of the race, according to a bookmaker.

Polymarket, an online platform where users can place “yes” or “no” bets on the probability of world events, currently gives the vice president a 41.4 chance of victory, and Donald Trump is the favorite in percent 58.5 as of Monday morning.

On October 30, Polymarket said that Harris has a 33 percent chance of winning the 2024 election. Trump’s odds of winning, at the time of writing on Monday morning, had dropped by about 10 points to out of the 67 percent Polymarket had on the same day.

Polymarket is a betting platform based overseas. It works almost like a stock exchange where users can buy and sell shares that represent the outcome of a future event, this improves or decreases depending on how much money is invested in a particular outcome, in this case who win the presidential election. If you buy shares of Harris who won when his chances are 41.4 percent and hold them in the election, you will get a dollar for every 41 cents invested … if, of course, the vice president he can win.

The question arose about Trump’s problems with Polymarket’s forecast when the same person is said to be behind several accounts that spent millions of dollars betting that Trump will win Tuesday’s race. The chances of a former president winning a spot are usually higher than other fortune tellers.

Newsweek contacted the Trump and Harris campaign teams as well as Polymarket for comment by email.

Harris’ improved polling chances on the site came after a surprise poll suggested she beat Trump in Iowa, a state previously not considered a Democrat toss.

A study from J. Ann Selzer, one of the most respected and accurate researchers, for Des Moines Register and Mediacom, showed Harris ahead in Iowa by 47 percent to 44. The result falls within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Voting for 808 potential voters in Iowa took place between October 28th and 31st.

Trump led Harris in the September Iowa poll by 4 points (47 percent to 43 percent). In a June Selzer poll, Trump had an 18-point lead over President Joe Biden, who was the Democratic nominee at the time. Trump won Iowa in both the 2016 and 2020 elections by nearly 10 and 9 points, respectively.

Although the Iowa survey is a national survey, it may show that Harris is gaining more power and support as the election campaign ends. Pollsters suggest that if Harris pulls off a surprise result in Iowa, it could have far-reaching implications for races across the country.

“In the event that Harris wins Iowa, he is likely to do well in other Midwest states, particularly Michigan and Wisconsin. In that case, he would almost certainly win the Electoral College,” archeologist Nate Silver wrote in his book. Silver Bulletin blog.

Selzer pointed out that older women and independent women are largely responsible for the shift toward Harris in Iowa.

Senior female voters support Harris over Trump by 63 percent to 28 percent.

Independent voters, who previously supported Trump in every other Iowa selzer election this year, now favor Harris, 46 percent to 39. Independent women also now back Harris over Trump 57 percent. to 29, a significant increase from the 5-point lead vice president. had the September poll (40 percent to 35 percent).

An Emerson College poll of nearly 800 likely voters in Iowa, released the same day as Selzer’s poll, suggests Tuesday’s vote will be in line with past results.

The poll gives Trump a 10-point lead over Harris in Iowa (53 percent to 43 percent). The poll was conducted on November 1 and 2, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Polymarket is, at the time of writing Monday morning, giving Harris a 19 percent chance of winning Iowa on Tuesday, up from 5 percent the day before Selzer’s poll was released.

Regarding the seven major states, Polymarket currently shows that Harris is the favorite in Wisconsin (59% chance of winning to Trump’s 42) and Michigan (61% to 40).

Polymarket gives Trump a good chance of winning in Arizona (77 to 25 percent), Georgia (66 to 34), Nevada (63 to 37), North Carolina (66 to 35), and Pennsylvania (57 to 44).