Harris’ latest surge in betting odds spurred by foreign poll, but Trump still ‘slightly beaten’

Vice President Kamala Harris has had a recent push to close the gap between herself and former President Trump in terms of election betting odds.

Trump enjoys a 13.1-point lead in presidential betting as of Monday morning, leading Harris 56% to 42.9% in the Real Politics betting average. However, that number represents a recent turnaround for Harris, who trailed Trump by 28.9 percent six days ago.

“The rest of the election is getting a little closer, so I think the better people are seeing a run toward Harris,” Maxim Lott, who runs ElectionBettingOdds.com, told Fox News Digital on Monday.

WHAT ARE BETTING PROCEDURES? AN EXPERT EXPLAINS WHY TRUMP IS THE FAVORITE RIGHT NOW

Lott’s website shows a similar trend to the Clear Politics average, with Trump having a 56.4% chance of winning the election as of Monday morning, while Harris has a 43.1% chance. But according to the Real Politics numbers, Trump’s lead has dropped by 5.3 percent over the past week.

Lott, a former executive producer of the FOX Business Network show, says more input could lead to a change in gambling behavior, pointing to a surprising recent survey by the Des Moines Register/ Mediacom from Iowa showed Harris by one point. Trump in several states believed to be playing for Democrats.

While one poll could be dismissed as an outlier, Lott noted that it appears that better people have responded to the news, with Trump’s chances of winning the state dropping from 94% this week. last to 82.1% as of Monday morning.

“I think there’s kind of a message behind that poll that abortion is going to be a driver in this election, just like it was in 2022, and that women are going to come out in droves to vote for Harris.” ,” Lott said. “I think the vendors are at least giving the possibility that that’s true.”

MAJOR POLLSTER SETS UP FINAL WAR DECLARATION

What Lott doesn’t believe is driving Harris’ performance is the small number of very large bets that come to his attention, pointing to betting platforms such as PredictIt, which limit the number of bettors and the size of bets. betting on specific, sequential outcomes. guide as each platform is viewed on his website.

However, Lott cautioned against putting too much stock in the latest period when it comes to evaluating betting odds.

“Momentum doesn’t matter at all … for this type of thing,” Lott said. “In the market, the current price is the best future price … if Harris were to lead, you can make a lot of money by putting him in front by putting money yours to him now.”

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

In addition, Lott is expecting a close election that is likely to go down.

“I would expect that on Election Day, Trump will still be favored a little bit,” Lott said.

Get the latest from the 2024 campaign, exclusive interviews and more in our Fox News Digital polls hub.